Polish Middles

serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:26 UTC

Hi,

I have just started using OddStorm and been taking a closer look at Polish Middles.

Attached example.

The true price of the draw at HT in the Italy v France match on Betfair is 2.07 which equates to a -1.72% ROI from my calculations. Am I doing something wrong? I must be surely otherwise they wouldn’t appear would they?

My calculations are as follows if we did this 207 times (rounded up these figures):

Total staked: £315,238

Total Win: £46,878

Total Loss: -£52,289

Total Profit: £-5,411

ROI: -1.72%

Appreciate any advice, thanks.
Arbitrage Guides Arber · Posts: 48 20 November 2017 at 08:28 UTC

Hi,

I have just started using OddStorm and been taking a closer look at Polish Middles.

Attached example.

The true price of the draw at HT in the Italy v France match on Betfair is 2.07 which equates to a -1.72% ROI from my calculations. Am I doing something wrong? I must be surely otherwise they wouldn’t appear would they?

My calculations are as follows if we did this 207 times (rounded up these figures):

Total staked: £315,238

Total Win: £46,878

Total Loss: -£52,289

Total Profit: £-5,411

ROI: -1.72%

Appreciate any advice, thanks.

Hello @serge91,

The example you have sent is not correct because you have changed the value of the odds and didn’t press calculate. See attached screenshot.

All the surebets are correct, otherwise they won’t appear. Betfair is scanned every 3 minutes for PreMatch and every 2 seconds for InPlay and that’s why when you are navigated to the event(for PreMatch) the odds might be different. If you calculate the arbitrage with the new odds then it could become negative.

ou can read more for the Polish Middles and take a look at the examples here: Polish Middles
serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:30 UTC

Thanks for the reply and for noticing that error.

Will try and do 50-100 at smaller stakes to begin with to see how I fare.
serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:30 UTC

I want to ask if Polish Middles for PreMatch that are all for first half, does this means that the matches that are appearing are more likely not be X at the half time?
Arbitrage Guides Arber · Posts: 48 20 November 2017 at 08:31 UTC

I want to ask if Polish Middles for PreMatch that are all for first half, does this means that the matches that are appearing are more likely not be X at the half time?

Hello @serge91,

That’s a good question. I will try to explain it as easiest I can.

OddStorm is supporting 1-st half and 2-nd half for PreMatch quite recently and mostly full-time matches are appearing, because they still do not support 1-st and 2-nd half for all bookmakers.

In some leagues, the statistics show that most of the matches are ending DRAW (X) and that’s why the odds offered by the bookmakers are lower. That’s why it is recommended to avoid such leagues if you want to bet on Polish Middles with result “NOT MATCH DRAW”.

Exceptional is only if the value is too good as in the attached screenshot.

For InPlay OddStorm is also supporting 1-st and 2-nd half and Full-time and there is an option from the filters to choose the match to be on half-time ( not to play at the moment). In this case, you will see only arbitrages for Full Time and 2-nd half where the match is at half time.

The difference between match to be 2-nd half and Full Time is that the result at the end of the 2-nd half could be different than the result of the FullTime match. For example, if there is penalty or match time is extended the result from the end of the 2-nd half will be different than the match end result (full time).
serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:32 UTC

Just don’t understand how this is value, Can you please give me the long term ROI of this bet?

If Slovakia or Scotland are winning at HT then I win £597.33 1.34 times on average every 2.34 times = £800.42
Whereas if it’s a draw at HT then I lose on average £802.67 once on average every 2.34 times = -£802.67

Total -£2.25

True price on Betfair is about 2.28 currently minus commission, do I need to be taking this into account when i’m calculating as I attempted in my first post? Your examples didn’t seem to whereas Odds Storm’s website examples did.
Arbitrage Guides Arber · Posts: 48 20 November 2017 at 08:34 UTC

Just don’t understand how this is value, Can you please give me the long term ROI of this bet?

If Slovakia or Scotland are winning at HT then I win £597.33 1.34 times on average every 2.34 times = £800.42
Whereas if it’s a draw at HT then I lose on average £802.67 once on average every 2.34 times = -£802.67

Total -£2.25

True price on Betfair is about 2.28 currently minus commission, do I need to be taking this into account when i’m calculating as I attempted in my first post? Your examples didn’t seem to whereas Odds Storm’s website examples did.

Dear @serge91,

I am not sure if you get the point that Polish Middles is not the same as SureBet. Surebets are guaranteed profit while Polish Middles is close to pure gambling.

It is for advanced bettors that have strategies and know when this Polish Middle will end in his benefit (or at least it has a big chance to do so).

In the screenshot from your post you should first know the statistics for the league International, World Cup 2018 Qualifications if it is more often the matches there to end with DRAW or NOT.

1) If Slovakia WIN your profit will be: 2.40*1000=2400.

From these 2400 we subtract 1000 + 802.67 = 597.33 end prpfit.

2) If Scotland WIN your profit will be: 2.99*802.67=2400.

From these 2400 we subtract 1000 + 802.67 = 597.33 end profit.

3) If match is DRAW whole bet in Pinnacle will be void and you will lose only 802.67.

So, the value of the Polish Middle is 802.67/597.33+1=2.34

This means that you have to win 2 times and lose 0.34 times on average 2.34 (here is where you make mistake in your calculations).

So, if you win 2×597.33 = 1197.66 and lose 802.67 the profit will be 1197.66-802.67= 391.99

But you still have to win twice so better focus on lower value polish middles – under 2, because there you only have to win and lose once.

Once again, Polish Middles are in addition to your normal gambling/betting skills.

Many of our customers are combining them and the result is more than impressive.
serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:35 UTC

Thanks for your reply.

I understand that completely but if I were to do the above bet 234,000 times how would you calculate the overall expected ROI of that please? As below?

£1802.67 * 234,000 = £421,824,780
£391.99 * 100,000 = £39,199,000

9.29% ROI?

Middles I get, I can work out the ROI if I know what the true price of that outcome should be against the odds I’m getting but PM’s I can’t get my head around the maths as you can see.

Also, why do I need to know stats of leagues as you said all PM bets that appear on Odds Storm are value if I can get the prices in time, so should I not just trust the maths?

Should the PM always be higher/lower than the true price by the way or is that irrelevant?

Thanks
Arbitrage Guides Arber · Posts: 48 20 November 2017 at 08:36 UTC

First, ROI is for surebets, not Middles or Polish Middles. There instead of ROI you have VALUE. You can’t expect fixed ROI from gambling.

All Polish Middles are value, but if you see PM with MATCH NOT TO BE DRAW and if you know that the statistics show that these teams often end with DRAW, you should skip this PM because there is big chance to lose. OddStorm is just gathering and calculating all the PM situations, but you will need strategy and knowledge in order to be successful in Polish Middles.

I know we are going in circle with this conversation but you got the wrong conception for Polish Middles and I really don’t know how to explain it better so you could understand me.
serge91 Arber · Posts: 7 20 November 2017 at 08:37 UTC

Yes sorry when I say ROI, I mean value or theoretical ROI. I don’t lay arbs, so I always ‘gamble’.

So if I bet a million times on a 2.34 PM such as the example above (match not a draw) and the draw chance is about average and I have no opinion either way, what would my average profit be statistically?
Arbitrage Guides Arber · Posts: 48 20 November 2017 at 08:37 UTC

It doesn’t matter if you will bet 1 or 1 000 000 times on this Polish Middle. If you win your profit will be 438.11 for each winning according to the example above. It depends on your strategy and how the match ends.
Tauta Arber · Posts: 2 18 June 2019 at 17:23 UTC

OddStorm is just gathering and calculating all the PM situations, but you will need strategy.